Damon Rapozo

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MARKET UPDATE

 

Over the last 90 days I have started to notice a trend.  Guaranty RV Center always inventories a large selection of new and pre-owned motor homes.  In this article I will be focusing on "new" models and what I believe I am seeing happen.  Some of our coaches are owned by Guaranty that we purchased new or at an auction, others are owned by the banks meaning they are either floor planned for Guaranty or on consignment as the bank ended up taking these models back from another dealership or manufacturer that went bankrupt. 

Two weeks ago we had three brand new Newmar King Aire models in stock, all were 45' models, a pair of 2009's and one 2008.  All three were built approximately 1 year ago and all three carried an MSRP somewhere in the $680,000.00 range.  These 3 were all sold for less than $500,000.00 during the last 2 weeks.  What prompted this business recently? Im not sure, maybe the recession is over... What I do know is to order a new 2010 King Aire today it will certainly cost the purchasing dealership well over $500,000.00 and unless that dealer is anxious to lose money fast, it will also cost you the buyer somewhere north of $500,000.00 as well. It's no secret dealerships are in business to make a fair profit.  

I have a few customers that were considering these King Aire's new; they kept on offering me $425,000.00, $435,000.00 and so on.  Now they are upset in themselves that all 3 are sold and gone.  I guess I would be to, because to replace those models with a new 2010 order they will have to wait for it to be manufactured and pay another 6 figures plus just to get in the ballpark.  I think it should also be said that this little exercise can be used on a variety of manufacturers; I'm just picking on Newmar today.

Here is where it gets a little interesting; the argument is a new 2010 is just that, a 2010 model (verses a 08 or 09) it's 1 or 2 years newer!  But are they really? I don't believe so because not much if anything has changed from 2008 through 2010.  Most manufacturers closed up shop during the fall of 2008 and reopened during the spring of 2009.  Did the R&D and engineer's come in and work for free last winter and spring to design the 2010 models, of course not.  Most if not all manufacturers closed out the 2009 model year very early and started stamping them 2010 models.  Some even closed up shop with 2009 models on the production line and when they reopened 6 or 8 months later they re-stamped these 2009 models as 2010 models.  So I feel it is safe to say not much has changed from the 2008 models to the 2010 models aside from a couple of digits on the title. 

The same example can be used on this 2008 Holiday Rambler Scepter http://www.damonr.com/inventory/index.php?model=712929 we recently purchased from an auction.  It went to auction from a default dealership.  It's new with only 1,793 miles.  MSRP was $334,906.00; we have it priced at $252,800.00.  A new 2009 will have an MSRP of $350,000.00.  So yes, it's a model year older but it's also $100,000.00 less. Once these "special purchases" are cleaned up its back to business as usual.  I feel we are near the end of getting this correction cleaned up so if you're n the fence now may be the time to jump.

In comparison to other dealerships we still have a great selection of high end inventory to select from. I'm told the manufacturers are running out if not already out of "yard inventory" and I know we have placed orders with our manufacturers so I believe things are starting to get back to normal.  I also believe we are entering what could be the last quarter of a true "buyers market" where most (new) models are being sold below dealer cost. Once these special purchase or bank owned motor homes are sold and washed through the system we will be back to paying (dealer) cost plus.

 

 

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